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Opec points to oil demand exceeding production

18 Junio 2016

Data Tuesday from the private American Petroleum Institute showed U.S. crude inventories rose 1.2 million barrels last week, confounding forecasts of a fall.

Crude oil prices took a nosedive Tuesday even after the International Energy Agency said demand was moving higher against short-term disruptions in supply.

"Between January and today two main factors have transformed the outlook: first, oil demand growth has been significantly stronger than we expected", the report said.

U.S crude oil imports averaged over 7.6 million barrels per day last week, lower by 83,000 barrels from the week before.

Commercial inventories in Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) countries rose by 14.4 million barrels to reach 3.07 billion barrels at the end of April.

Global oil demand growth in 1Q16 has been revised upwards to 1.6 mb/d and for 2016 growth will now be 1.3 mb/d. Nigerian oil output fell to its historic low - 1.37 million barrels per day - by 250,000 b/d, something the country hasn't seen in the last 30 years.

Last week, Brent was at the highest this year, touching nearly $53 a barrel, while USA crude was near $52 after supply disruptions from producers including Nigeria and Canada.

"There are some that think that the recent recovery in prices is due to temporary supply issues and not to do with any strengthening demand on the back of a robust global economy", Kapadia said.

However, the IEA expects the second half of the year to be characterized by a series of unexpected of supply cuts in key supplier nations.

US rig counts have increased in the last two weeks, however, raising concern that supplies may grow and pressure prices again. USA crude fell to a three-week low of $47.55 as the contract dropped for a fifth day.

"The excess supply in the market is likely to ease over the coming quarters", OPEC said in the report, published on June 13.

OPEC production is seen growing modestly in 2017 and global oil stocks will build slightly in the first half of next year before falling slightly more in the second half.

 

 

Opec points to oil demand exceeding production